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“The subject is interesting to me because the gap between the sunny, titillating legend and the grim reality of the counter-story are so distant from one another,” Carlson said. “To put it in personal terms, I want to believe the sun-tanning showgirl story, because the alternative is depressing.”
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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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Stakeholders from Bally’s Corp gave an update about the progress of the company’s permanent Chicago casino in a conference call that lasted just eight minutes on Monday, with comments from Chairman Soo Kim and Wanda Wilson, chair of the Bally’s Chicago board.
The terse call came about a month after Bally’s announced it was “resetting the pace of construction” of the project’s non-gaming elements in response to the city’s legalisation of video gaming terminals earlier this year.
Kim said the purpose of convening the call was to “reiterate our deep commitment to Bally’s Chicago” and to address “inaccurate reports” from the press saying that construction had stopped or slowed after the update that was released in early August.
