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The four analysts arrive at much the same broad conclusion, albeit by different routes.
For Birkin, the share-price decline has gone well beyond the deterioration in earnings expectations. Fantini sees the industry’s great growth phase as largely behind it. Beynon’s focus is on what the market can see today: earnings and cash flow, rather than promises of future sportsbook growth. And for Robinson, the weakness is no longer simply a matter of valuation. It is increasingly showing up in the fundamentals themselves.
Nobody is predicting the end of gambling. The market is still growing. Good operators are still making money. New products are emerging.
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Lottomatica chairman and CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi noted the combination would create a more diversified business with significant opportunities for growth.
“With the combination of Lottomatica and Cirsa, two extremely successful companies, we create the undisputed leader in Italy and Spain, among the best gaming markets globally, complemented by leadership positions in other very high growth geographies,” he said.
Cirsa CEO Antonio Hostench added: “I am delighted to embark on this exciting journey together. The combination of Cirsa and Lottomatica creates a world-class diversified gaming leader with leading positions across its core markets and significant opportunities to accelerate profitable growth.”
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The report utilised various methods to estimate the size and scale of Europe’s black market, including web traffic, digital marketing, macros data and regulations in place across the 28 markets surveyed.
Helios, a specialist consultant in gambling web traffic, analysed the number of black market websites actively marketing across the 28 markets included in the report, between March and May.
This data was cross referenced with SimilarWeb traffic analysis to confirm the scale of activity. In some markets, the number of illegal sites being actively marketed was much higher than those that have local licences to operate.